Decisions - every day is a barrage of them. Whether to wake up now or hit the snooze button, what to wear, what to eat, what time to leave for work, or maybe call in sick? Decisions come at us fast and hard. Our brains are constantly analyzing information while trying to deliver the best outcome we desire. In fact, the average adult makes a decision every 2 seconds, 2,000 per hour, and up to 35,000 per day.

Most of our decisions are menial and indeterminate of how our day will turn out. Others can alter the course of a day, a month, a year, or possibly a life. Some decisions are autonomous, almost a reflex requiring no thought, while others are reached through careful consideration and purpose. 

In the next few months mule deer hunters around the country will find themselves making decisions by the latter - painstakingly and purposefully considering every detail to determine what mule deer unit to put in for.

It’s application season, the time of year our decisions now, will affect our fall hunting schedules. During application season hunters spend hours behind the computer running possible scenarios and calling buddies, and buddies of buddies, to get inside information on specific mule deer units. A painstaking process, seeking as much information as possible to guide our mule deer unit decision.

At Muley Freak we empathize with mule deer hunters everywhere as application season approaches. We feel the stress too. Next fall’s hunting season is riding on what we decide now, and the right choice takes forethought and strategy - a synthesizing of information from several sources. We asked around Muley Freak to see what everyone here considers when making mule deer unit choices on their own applications. Below is a collection of the answers we heard at Muley Freak.

1. Draw odds

The very first thought in every hunter's mind when applying for hunts is, “what are my draw odds for the unit”? Draw odds are the statistical probability of your chance to draw a tag based on tag numbers, total applicants, and the number of points you have. Nowadays it’s easy to figure out drawing odds. All you need to do is subscribe to a Hunt Research Tool and input data like state, species, residency, unit, and your points. Then watch the magic happen as hidden algorithms turn data into your chances of drawing. Much easier than the old way of taking state draw reports and building Excel spreadsheets to calculate your odds.

Draw odds aren’t perfect though, it’s still a probability, not a guarantee. The number of applicants and tag distributions change every year in each unit. It’s a very good beginning though.

If you are tired of hoping you draw a tag, read about OTC hunt opportunities here.  

2. Threshold for not drawing

One common consideration among the Muley Freak team is how bad they want to hunt mule deer in a specific state the coming fall. Two common considerations were mentioned when discussing what one's threshold for not drawing is; other hunts, and how bad they want the unit.

A) What other hunts we have to fill the void if unsuccessful in the draw.

If we have a busy fall and other hunts planned elsewhere, the threshold for not drawing is higher and unit selection can be based on higher risk for not drawing. If our next fall is riding on being able to hunt then unit selection is adjusted for lower risk in hopes of drawing that tag to fill the opening in our fall hunt schedule.

B) Do we just want to hunt regardless of the unit, or are we holding out for a specific unit.

Some of us really want to hunt specific units and not just anywhere. If this is the case for you, and the unit takes a few points to draw, you may need to be comfortable with sitting out the hunt for a few years and make plans accordingly.

3. Tag allocations

Managing wildlife and hunting pressure is a moving target - never static and unpredictable each year. Fire, disease, weather, and even social and political tolerances shift the number of tags allocated to each unit in any given year. Take a look at the number of tags for the unit as it can tell you a couple of things to help you make your decision.

A) Trends in unit herd numbers.

By looking at tag numbers, you can make some general assumptions. If tags have remained constant over a few years then the mule deer herd may be fairly stable. If tag numbers went up from last year, an increase in the deer population may be the reason, and if tag numbers have decreased you can guess the deer population is trending down as well.

Looking at change from one year to the next is helpful but the best way to analyze tag allocations is through multiple years to find longer term trends. Trends over time provide a more accurate picture and can help you make predictions on what the deer population is doing.

B) Number of hunters in the field.

More tags isn’t always a positive. If you see a big jump in tag numbers from the previous year you can expect to see more hunters in the field too. This happened on Aaron and Tyler’s hunt last fall. The unit they had been hunting suddenly had an increase in tags from 2023 to 2024. Even though they packed in far from roads, they encountered more hunting pressure compared to the previous year. Aaron even had to watch as another hunter packed out one of his target bucks.

4. Ability to Scout

A well known quote by Spanish philosopher José Ortega y Gasset states, "One does not hunt in order to kill. One kills in order to have hunted." In our opinion, the real hunt is in the scouting. Getting to know your unit, the terrain, the animals, and even the people during scouting is where the hunt takes place. The act of killing an animal is just an exclamation point at the end of the hunt story.

Our top consideration on how available we are to scout the unit when we draw are;

A) Work schedule

B) Distance to unit

C) Personal finances

D) Family/hunt life balance

E) Friends and family availability - because it’s always funner experiencing the hunt with someone else.

Think about what you want the hunt to be, beginning with the scouting and culminating with the hunting season. We always select units we have the ability to extensively scout because scouting is our favorite part.

5. Hunt unit success rates

Everyone wants to be in the best position for success, so it’s a no-brainer to examine hunter success rates on the units you want to apply for. Success rates aren’t the whole story but are a very informative piece. Again, as you analyze success trends over a few years, you can see the bigger picture of what is happening with the buck population on the unit. Past hunter success doesn’t always have to sway your decision alone though, we’ve routinely hunted areas with low hunter success and have had great hunts.

6. Hunt Style

Not everyone can or wants to hunt the same way. Some hunters want a wilderness backpacking hunt, deep into roadless areas far from people. Others would like the comfort of a camp trailer base camp with dirt road access to trails to hunt from each day. Decide on the type of hunt you want to do first then start researching units to fit the style. Some units will be better than others for your style of choice.

For example, Aaron and Tyler selected the unit they hunted the last couple of years largely based on their desire for a backcountry backpack style of hunt.

7. Distance from roads and major trails

The above hunt style conversation dovetails right into our next consideration nicely - how to get away from people. It’s no secret we love to pack into roadless areas. Roadless areas get you into country where the occurrence of people decreases and the number of animals increases.

Considering distance from roads doesn’t necessarily mean you have to do a backpack style hunt. You can research open space between trails and roads really for any type of hunt. We’ve hunted from road access basecamps then hunted each day by hitting a trailhead into areas of roadless terrain with great success.

8. Buck-to-doe ratios

An important way biologists monitor and manage mule deer populations is through calculating buck-to-doe ratios. Buck-to-doe ratios are the number of bucks present in the deer population per a given number of does. For example, language taken from a unit management plan in Utah states, “…will be managed to maintain a three year average postseason buck-to-doe ratio of 18-20.” The 18-20 buck ratio is measured per 100 does in this example. This means on average for the unit as a whole, 18-20 bucks are present per 100 does. It’s common to have units managed anywhere from 15-25 bucks per 100 does depending on how biologists are managing the age class of bucks and hunter opportunity.

9. Personal Networks

Lastly, but not leastly, we love the old fashioned way of getting information on units using our personal networks of friends and family who know the units. Never underestimate word of mouth from trusted hunters who have experience in the units you may want to put in for. We’ve had some world class adventures based on personal information shared with us by both friends and family.

Although this isn’t an all-inclusive list, it is a comprehensive guide based on our discussions internally at Muley Freak. The process for gathering the information we suggest in our list of top considerations for selecting a mule deer unit varies, but is actually really easy to obtain. The information we suggest here for researching a mule deer unit can be gathered in four ways:

1. Using a subscription based Hunt Research Tool like HuntinFool

2. Your mapping software subscription like HuntStand

3. Reports, management plans, and databases from state wildlife agencies online, for example

4. Word of mouth from trusted and experienced people

For example, mapping apps have a ton of different layers to help hunters research areas to hunt based on the style of hunt they desire. Layers for trails, access, distance to roads, roadless areas, and wilderness areas can be used to determine where to hunt.

Finding hunter success rates and buck-to-doe ratios can also be found through multiple methods like Hunt Research Tools and wildlife agency reports, management plans, and databases.

We live in an information age of convenience and what we want is usually at the end of our fingertips. Comment below if we missed anything you feel is super important when selecting a mule deer unit.

Watch the video below for 11 other mule deer hunting tips and tricks.